Hungarian Relations with the EU Strained Amid Upcoming Council Presidency

As Hungary prepares for its upcoming presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2024, its strained relations with the EU continue to raise concerns across Europe. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government has been embroiled in multiple disputes with the European Union, ranging from rule of law issues, democratic backsliding, to disagreements on sanctions related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These tensions cast a shadow over Hungary's ability to take on the critical role of steering the EU's agenda during its Council presidency.

Hungary’s relationship with the European Union has steadily deteriorated over the past decade, particularly under the leadership of Viktor Orbán, who has served as prime minister since 2010. Orbán has repeatedly clashed with the EU over his government’s policies, which many in Brussels view as undermining democratic institutions, weakening judicial independence, and curbing press freedoms.

The European Union has taken several steps to hold Hungary accountable, including invoking Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union in 2018, a mechanism that could lead to sanctions or the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights. While the procedure has not yet resulted in any penalties, it has placed Hungary under intense scrutiny. The European Commission has also withheld billions of euros in EU funds, accusing Hungary of not meeting conditions related to democratic reforms and anti-corruption measures.

Hungary's upcoming presidency of the Council of the European Union, scheduled for the second half of 2024, is a major point of contention. The Council presidency rotates among the EU member states every six months, giving each country an opportunity to shape the EU's agenda, facilitate negotiations, and represent the bloc in its external relations. Hungary's turn at the helm is stirring apprehension in both Brussels and other EU capitals, as many question whether Hungary can uphold the responsibilities of the position given its ongoing disputes with the EU.

Critics of Orbán’s government argue that Hungary's presidency will further complicate an already fragile relationship, especially in light of Hungary’s resistance to EU sanctions on Russia and its increasingly nationalist rhetoric. There are also concerns that Hungary may use its presidency to push its own agenda at the expense of the broader European consensus.

One of the most visible areas of friction between Hungary and the EU is related to sanctions on Russia. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has imposed a series of sanctions targeting Russian individuals, businesses, and sectors. Hungary, however, has been one of the most vocal critics of these sanctions, arguing that they are harming the EU economy more than they are affecting Russia.

Orbán’s government has maintained close ties with Russia, particularly in the energy sector. Hungary remains heavily reliant on Russian gas and oil, and it has resisted efforts to fully align with EU policies on energy diversification. This has put Hungary at odds with other EU member states, which have worked to reduce their dependence on Russian energy supplies in response to the war in Ukraine.

While Hungary has not outright blocked EU sanctions on Russia, it has consistently sought exemptions and special considerations, frustrating efforts to present a united front. This stance has drawn criticism from both EU leaders and member states, who view Hungary's position as undermining the bloc’s solidarity on a key geopolitical issue.

At the core of Hungary’s strained relations with the EU are concerns over the rule of law and democratic standards. The European Commission and European Parliament have repeatedly raised alarms over Hungary’s judicial reforms, media laws, and restrictions on civil society organizations, all of which are seen as eroding the country’s democratic institutions.

In 2020, the EU introduced the Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation, a mechanism that links the disbursement of EU funds to respect for the rule of law. Hungary has been a prime target of this regulation, with the European Commission suspending billions in funding until the Orbán government implements reforms to address corruption, ensure judicial independence, and strengthen the transparency of its public procurement processes.

Orbán has consistently pushed back against these demands, framing the EU's actions as an attack on Hungary's sovereignty. His government has also used these disputes to bolster domestic support, portraying Brussels as an external force attempting to impose liberal values on Hungary.

As Hungary prepares for its Council presidency, the stakes are high. The role will require Hungary to mediate complex negotiations on critical issues such as the EU’s economic recovery, the war in Ukraine, and migration policy. Given the current tensions between Hungary and the EU, many wonder whether Orbán’s government will be able to carry out these responsibilities in an impartial and effective manner.

The Council presidency will also come at a time when the EU is grappling with significant internal challenges, including rising populism, economic instability, and the ongoing energy crisis. Hungary’s leadership in this context will be closely scrutinized, particularly as Orbán continues to clash with EU institutions on fundamental issues of democracy and governance.

Conclusion: A Test of Hungary’s EU Commitment

Hungary's strained relationship with the EU raises serious questions about its ability to lead the bloc during its upcoming Council presidency. While the rotating presidency offers an opportunity for Hungary to improve its standing within the EU, it also presents significant risks. If Orbán’s government continues to resist EU norms and values, it may deepen the divide between Hungary and the rest of the Union.

For now, the upcoming presidency remains a critical test for both Hungary and the EU. The outcome will likely shape the future of Hungary’s place within the European Union and its role in shaping the bloc’s policies in the years to come.